This page presents the results obtained in the CIMMYT project “Geospatial Dimensions of Poverty and Food Security – A case study for Mexico” (June 2002 – June 2004), funded by the Government of Norway and implemented by the CGIAR Consortium for Spatial Information (CSI), FAO, and UNEP/GRID-Arendal. The page aims to provide an information resource for anyone with an interest in the spatial distribution of rural poverty in Mexico.

All key datasets are presented in the form of interactive GIS maps.

Project Summary

The project used small-area estimation techniques as described by Bigman et al (2000) applied to the National Survey of Household Incomes & Expenditures (ENIGH, 2000), the XII General Population and Housing National Census 2000. Data from the ENIGH of 2002 and the National Nutrition Survey of 1999 (ENN, 1999) were also incorporated for comparative purposes. A multiplicative heteroskedastic regression model was developed using the ENIGH 2000 data, this predicted per capita expenditure in Mexican pesos of 2000 per month as a proxy for welfare. To classify households among different levels of welfare, we employed the three poverty lines (food, capabilities & patrimony) developed by the Mexican Technical Committee for the Study of Poverty (Comite Tecnico para la Medicion de la Pobreza, 2002). The developed model incorporated variables relating to household size, education, housing characteristics, index of accessibility, fraction of indigenous language speakers, rural population, population density, climatic data and state location. These variables were chosen because of their potential relation to human welfare and that they could be directly linked to the national census data. Validation of the model, comparing it observed results and other studies, indicated that it performed well although had a tendency to overestimate the fraction of households under the food poverty line. Connecting the model results to GIS permitted the generation of rural poverty maps at the municipality and locality level. These provided opportunities to examine the spatial and temporal distribution, relate rural poverty to environmental / social / agricultural factors and provide a platform for targeting and priority setting. 

For further details see the complete Final Project Report.

Key Project Results

• Non-uniform distribution, with predicted extreme (food) rural poverty concentrated in certain areas especially in southern Mexico and parts of the Sierra Madre Occidental (Map 1 & Map 2)
• Results obtained matched closely those of the Mexican government, developed through other methodologies, and used for targeting development activities (Map 3)
• A relationship between child malnutrition and predicted extreme rural poverty was observed (Map 4)
• The environment in which the core areas of rural poverty existed were characterized by high rainfall, steep slope (Fig. 1) and in many cases erosion-prone soils. All factors combined indicated that soil erosion may be strong factor in many of the extremely poor rural areas.
• Maize, and to some extent bean, cropping systems were highly coincident with the extremely poor areas and likely to be of high importance
• Some aspects of CIMMYT's maize-based research portfolio were considered positive, or potentially positive, in relation to the extreme rural poor. This included the improvement of materials adapted and used in the poor areas and appropriate technologies such as post-harvest storage techniques.
• The high density of extremely poor rural localities in specific areas indicated significant opportunities for targeting anti-poverty or development programs (Map 5)

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